Since 2014, the United States has publicly accused Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a landmark Cold War nuclear arms control agreement. On February 14, 2017 the New York Times reported that Russia has already deployed a significant number of prohibited missiles. In light of these developments, the new U.S. administration will face the tough decision about whether or not to remain committed to the treaty. In their latest article, Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kühn and Anna Péczeli recount the history of the INF treaty to then assess Russian and US interests related to the treaty. Moreover, the article develops three possible future scenarios for Russian actions and their impact on, as well as possible responses by, the United States and its NATO allies. Click here...

Deep Cuts Working Paper #9 on INF Treaty Compliance by Deep Cuts Commissioners Greg Thielmann and Andrei Zagorski is out now!

 

The paper assesses the challenges to and opportunities of INF Treaty compliance in the light of newer political developments. It analyzes the current state of treaty compliance with particular view to Russian and US-American perceptions and gives concrete recommondations regarding a sustainable positive development of the INF Treaty. See "Publications" on the top menu bar or click here...

In his new article, Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kühn questions whether U.S.-Russian relations under Trump might largely stay the same as before, which would make arms control solutions for Europe more urgently needed but at the same time much harder to achieve. The incoming Trump administration inherits a U.S.-Russian relationship marked by disagreement and confrontation in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the wars in Syria and Ukraine, the West’s use of economic sanctions, and reciprocal complaints about interferences in domestic affairs. The arms control dialogue is stagnating, and the risk of conflict, whether by intent or miscalculation, is growing. Click here...

The question of the resilience of arms control and disarmament institutions to different political or other pressures rests mainly on their continued ability to function effectively. The goal of a world free from nuclear weapons is directly related to the issues of international institutions and deterrence. Assuming that it would be possible, first, to move to significantly lower numbers of nuclear weapons and then to zero nuclear weapons, governing institutions would have to be resilient enough to respond in a timely manner and to uphold the bargain. But what factors determine and influence institutional resilience? And what would be the likely role of deterrence? Ulrich Kühn assesses these questions in his new article. Click here ...

In the context of this current fourth phase, the Deep Cuts Commission shall be dedicated to introduce, present and discuss the elaborated proposals and recommendations of the last three cycles of its project with the new US Congressional staff and the incoming US administration. Thus, the dialogue on the future arms control agenda and the challenges of European security shall be further strengthened and presented effectively to a policy audience. Moreover, half a year after the publication of its last report, the Deep Cuts Commission shall have the opportunity to discuss its outcomes in the light of newer political developments, clearly addressing current threats and challenges. The idea is to engage the transition team of the incoming US administration and the new Capitol Hill staff about the situation in Europe within the context of US-Russian relations, including the debate about options for and challenges to arms control. For this purpose, we will hold meetings and give presentations in March 2017 following the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Conference in Washington D.C.

On August 8, Walther Stützle, long-term Member of the Deep Cuts Commission, died at the age of 74 after a short but severe ailment. Stützle was one of Germany's most valued experts in the field of international foreign and security policy and an outstanding intellectual. Stützle has worked for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation. Since 1969, Stützle held various positions within the Federal Ministry of Defence; amongst other, he chaired the Ministry's Policy Planning Staff. From 1986 to 1991, Stützle led the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) as the Institute's Director. From 1998 to 2002, he was State Secretary of Defence under Minister Rudolf Scharping in the SPD-the Greens coalition of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. Stützle was a Reserve Lieutenant-Colonel of the Navy and author of various monographs and articles. He worked as a journalist for many years. From 1994 to 1998 he was the editor in chief of the Berliner Tagesspiegel. Germany and the Deep Cuts Commission will very much miss his analytical foresight and his voice of reason. A eulogy can be found at Der Tagesspiegel, Click here ...

With NATO's Warsaw Summit fast approaching, the question of how to reassure NATO's easternmost allies while at the same time not further straining relations with Russia becomes key. Since 2014, particularly the Baltic States and Poland have called on NATO to further strengthen their defensive capabilities against what they perceive as a threatening Russian foreign and security policy. This new Working Paper by Wolfgang Richter proves that sub-regional restraint measures and enhanced transparency in the conventional realm could as well contribute to strengthening the security of all states in the Baltic area. Click here ...

In his latest blog post for War on the Rocks, Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kühn referred to the latest Report of the Commission, urging Russia and the West to come back from the brink. "NATO and Russia appear on the brink of a new arms race," Kühn writes. "This is why my colleagues and I  have come up with a number of recommendations in the latest report of the Deep Cuts Commission. Particularly for my Western colleagues, one of the key questions is: How should NATO deal with the challenges described above? The answer is straightforward: Allies must (again) realize that deterrence and arms control can go hand in hand. The coming years will bring both challenges and opportunities for dialogue and restraint. A number of security challenges call for urgent attention — and Washington must lead on most of them." Click here ...

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